Charging from deep-strike probabilities

[xtztxtxz]

I made this to summarise the expected odds of all the new charge bonus mechanics and how they interact.



It's worth pointing out that the Arachnacyte Gland relic on a monster means you need a 9" charge as you trade the +1 for 3D6 drop lowest. That kind of makes it a trap choice if you really want to maximise odds, as regular adrenals and a stratagem give the best result. 

[No One]

I don't think the relic AG is a trap, since it's a self sufficient and guaranteed buff, unlike the strats. Also not sure how 4d6 drop 2 compares to 3d6 drop 1? Because if 4d6 drop 2 is better at 9", it's just flat better (though not as good as it might first seem).

[wormlord666]

Dec 6, 2019 11:56:52 GMT xtztxtxz said:

I made this to summarise the expected odds of all the new charge bonus mechanics and how they interact.



It's worth pointing out that the Arachnacyte Gland relic on a monster means you need a 9" charge as you trade the +1 for 3D6 drop lowest. That kind of makes it a trap choice if you really want to maximise odds, as regular adrenals and a stratagem give the best result. 

Thank you!


I believe in having the arachnacyte as an option. If you face few hard units the hunters drive can be hard to get. Then this can be worth taking to get a synapse unit in and the the rest can folkow him.

Your stats suggest that if its a 9” and you fail but rolled a 6 its better to cp-reroll one for a 66% chance of 3+, but if its a failed 8” its better to re roll all three.

Thinking a behemot monster drop and how to getting ’em all in.

[1b2a]

Those are fluffy odds, not competitive odds.

[bolzor]

I was under the impression that the Arachnacyte Glands also grant a +1 to your charge results in addition to allowing the '3D6 Drop the lowest' ability.  I'm only informed from the leaks that I've been reading though.

[topaxygourouni]

Dec 6, 2019 17:26:39 GMT 1b2a said:

Those are fluffy odds, not competitive odds.

Anybody has better ones?

[1b2a]

Dec 6, 2019 17:48:48 GMT topaxygourouni said:

Dec 6, 2019 17:26:39 GMT 1b2a said:

Those are fluffy odds, not competitive odds.

Anybody has better ones?

Plenty of better options. A lot of fast T1 assaultsin the game (like 40"+ for BA without a swarmlord tax). warp time, gsc, blood letters 3d6 charge (keep all). A straight up 9+ is bad. With reroll its okay, but you'll likely fail and when you fail you lose a chunk of your army for nothing. That's why it's fluffy

[Hive Bahamut]

I like that there are options now but.. The thing that bothers me with these is Nids get the watered down version again.

Khorne: 3d6 charge Banner of Blood

Assassin: 3d6 charge Frenzon

Blood Angels: 3d6 charge Descent of Angels

Orkz: 3d6 charge Ramming Speed

I can't even find a 3d6 get rid of lowest. What is it with GW and their hatred of Nids having rules that are on par with everyone else?

Does the Relic Adrenal gland actually sidegrade it too? Odd.

Lots of neat stuff in BoB but I feel the traits super lackluster in comparison even to Drukhari.

[xtztxtxz]

Dec 6, 2019 18:21:21 GMT Hive Bahamut said:

I like that there are options now but.. The thing that bothers me with these is Nids get the watered down version again.

Khorne: 3d6 charge Banner of Blood

Assassin: 3d6 charge Frenzon

Blood Angels: 3d6 charge Descent of Angels

Orkz: 3d6 charge Ramming Speed

I can't even find a 3d6 get rid of lowest. What is it with GW and their hatred of Nids having rules that are on par with everyone else?

There's a possible argument to be made that Nids get access to other charge range bonuses that could be too strong if combined with 3D6 charge. Under the Behemoth trait & adrenal glands the odds of a full 3D6 charge are 97.3%. For comparison an Assasin's charge is 74% with Frenzon. I'm not sure about the others and if they can access stacking bonuses in a similar way, or how expensive they are in CP.

Dec 6, 2019 12:01:39 GMT No One said:

I don't think the relic AG is a trap, since it's a self sufficient and guaranteed buff, unlike the strats.

Yeah you're right, there is a role for it. 'Trap' was probably the wrong word; I was trying to highlight that most people would assume taking a relic would give the best possible result but surprisngly that's not the case. The best result is achieved by avoiding it!

[Hive Bahamut]

Khorne has +1 from instrument and can only use the upgrade once per game. No CP just unit upgrade.

The assassin is single model so footprint is negligible.

Blood Angels have innate +1 and can get +2 from Litanies or +1 or so from a relic. 2CP strat and a Chap you were already taking.

Orkz have innate reroll and I think it is 2CP.

So I come to the conclusion GW assumes everyone is Behemoth because those are all comparable in cost and utility, but 1 sticks out like a sore thumb if not Behemoth.

Interesting, not quite bad but not auto take either.

👍To a relic that actually makes it less consistent over the base form.

Thank you for the maths.

[No One]

xtztxtxz said:

The best result is achieved by avoiding it!

I mean, you're comparing an unbuffed relic charge to a buffed AG charge: that's not a fair comparison. Note that, as far as I'm aware, all 3 "3d6" are roll an extra D6, drop lowest. So until you provide maths on 4d6 drop 2 vs 3d6 8" drop 1, that's not quite a claim you can make.

Hive Bahamut said:

👍To a relic that actually makes it less consistent over the base form.

See above, but also relic is better than non without strat buffs base.

[mule]

Dec 6, 2019 17:48:48 GMT topaxygourouni said:

Dec 6, 2019 17:26:39 GMT 1b2a said:

Those are fluffy odds, not competitive odds.

Anybody has better ones?

Ya, genestealer cult.

Dont deepstrike melee nids we dont have reliable deepstrikes and if you dont make it your units die 100%

This is why i said the lictor isnt great. Because you HAVE to deepstrike them and you need to have it + the other unit make the charge.

[purestrain]

Dec 7, 2019 0:32:16 GMT mule said:

Dec 6, 2019 17:48:48 GMT topaxygourouni said:

Anybody has better ones?

Ya, genestealer cult.

Dont deepstrike melee nids we dont have reliable deepstrikes and if you dont make it your units die 100%

This is why i said the lictor isnt great. Because you HAVE to deepstrike them and you need to have it + the other unit make the charge.

The strat allows no overwatch if you DS or you charge out of cover, so... no?

[gigasnail]

watch that auspex.

[Hive Bahamut]

Haha! Lictors have -1 for -2 Auspex. Oh they reroll all misses, and nuked it.. Now the whole plan falls apart as they overwatch the unit beside the crispy dead Lictor.

Deathleaper holds a bit more weight with -2 but there are much better gimmicks now and a Lictor isn't any better than before. Trap stratagem, just like Invisible Hunter and Phermone trail.

I honestly love the Lictors look, (Deathleaper... 🤢) but really wanted to see it retired to Legends. It somehow gets worse each edition, and GSC kind of stole their niche.