No One's Maths Thread (Mostly GSC)

[No One]

For new people to the thread, just skip this and go to pg 13 - everything else is just 7th ed discussion.

Edit: 17 for GSC Codex

Edit: Some numbers updated. Right 2 columns likely wrong though! (though trends are likely similar).

Anyway, been spending way to much time mucking about on Excel, so thought I'd share: Comparing 14 acolytes (with banner) to 4 aberrants (hammers) to 10 metamorphs (claws+banner).

Left columns are the number of expected wounds. Right 2 columns are the number of S4 hits without saves (since common), but including fnp, needed before they beat out metamorphs.

Charge	Acolytes	Aberrants	Metamorphs	Acolytes vs Metamorphs	Aberrants vs metamorphs
T4 3+	10.37	1.67	10.37	-	14
T6 3+	6.22	1.67	7.41	6	13.5
T5 3+(5+ fnp)	5.53	3.33	5.93	-	-
T5 3+ 3++	4.15	1.11	5.93	9	-
T6 2+ 5++	4.15	3.33	4.44	3	13.8

For reference, ~14 S4 hits is a bit under half the aberrants gone, and ~3/4 the entire metamorph squad gone. So...not that great there (especially accounting for striking last - even just an additional 2 S4 hits bumps that back a bit).

Charge+Banner+Might from Beyond	Acolytes	Aberrants	Metamorphs	Acolytes vs Metamorphs	Aberrants vs metamorphs
T4 3+	18.15	6.67	12.96		13.2
T6 3+	12.96	6.67	12.96	6
T5 3+ 3++ (5+ fnp)	6.91	2.22	6.17	3.6	15.2
T5 3+ (4+ fnp)	7.78	6.67	6.48		3.7
T5 3+ (3+ fnp)	5.19	6.67	4.32
T6 2+ 5++	7.78	4.44	7.41	3.6	12
T4 4++	19.44	3.33	13.89		15.7
T5 2+ 3++ (3+ fnp)	2.16	2.22	1.85
DP (3++)	10.37	8.88	9.26

And aberrants still don't stack up well, except against bikers with a very good fnp, but no invul (note: the numbers on the right are including the banner FNP).

OK, and the other one (kazetanade ):

Seismic (both seismic and mining laser are using 2 weapons for values).

	Seismic (0-12")	Seismic (12-24")	Mining	4 TL S7 AP4 (comparison)
T4 3+	1.67	1.33	0.83	0.83
T4 3+ 5++	1.11	1.11	0.56	0.83
T4 4+ 5++	1.11	1.78	0.56	1.67
T4 2+ 5++	0.44	0.78	0.56	0.42
T5 3+ 4++	0.83	0.78	0.42	0.83
T6 3+	1.67	0.89	0.83	0.67
T6 2+ 5++	0.44	0.56	0.56	0.33

A really nice general weapon I think.

And against vehicles:

AV	Vanquisher+las	MM Sponsons	MM Sponsons (half range)	Exterminator	Seismic (0-12")	Mining
10	1.46	1.28	1.65	2	1.89	1.28
11	1.32	1	1.58	1.5	1.56	1.06
12	1.15	0.72	1.46	1	1.22	0.83
13	0.96	0.44	1.31	0.5	0.89	0.61
14	0.75	0.17	1.11	0	0.33	0.39

Any particular profile, (probably) happy to do, unless it's something very irritating (like reroll 1s on anything in there). Will probably eventually do an aberrant vs metamorph against vehicles.

Edit: Some probabilities of seismic vs vehicles, and some acolyte/metamorph/aberrant comparisons for vehicles on pg 3.

A good summary of a lot of the thread's points (some comments and minor corrections from me in green).

kazetanade said:

Not exactly correct - At 10 men squads, Clawed Metamorphs outperform Acolytes against the band of T3-T7, but at equivalent point squads (14-15 Acolytes vs 10 Clawed Metamorphs), Acolytes outperform Clawed Metamorphs at T3 and T7 respectively.

In the band of T4-T6, Clawed Metamorphs outperform Acolytes at any unit size up to same point cost. Not entirely correct: 13 acolytes with banner (114 pts) beat out 10 clawed metamorphs with banner (120 pts) against T4 2+ and T5 2+, at 7.7 vs 7.4 expected wounds and 6.74 vs 6.67 expected wounds respectively. True for everything else though.

Against TEQ, a unit of 15+ Acolytes > everything else.

Against MEQ, a unit of 10 Clawed Metamorphs beats up to 15 Acolytes - bringing 20 will beat them out. 14 acolytes are equal to 10 metamorphs.

Against GEQ, a unit of 10 Clawed Metamorphs beats anything up to 12 Acolytes - bringing 15 will beat them out.

Against MCs, a unit of 10 Clawed Metamorphs beats out anything less than 15 Acolytes - bringing 15 or more will beat them out.

Against GMCs, a unit of 20 Acolytes work best. Clawed Metamorphs are distinctively worse at killing GMCs apart from the stormsurge than Acolytes are.

Against AV12-13, a unit of 10 Clawed Metamorphs are about as good as it gets. Against AV11 the coin is 50-50, and AV10 Acolytes have an easy enough job that equivalent points will get the job done the same.

Against AV14+, bring Acolytes with saws. Saws are singularly the best tool we have for dealing with Knights because you can ram any unit into them and still scare them with potential damage. Otherwise you need 20 Acolytes with Icon + Hatred to score the kill on the Knight. Saws are also better due to the larger potential unit size giving a more reliable kill chance against a full HP knight.

Also note, for most situations, both units getting boltered in overwatch and losing models will usually cause Acolytes to perform better, according to No One's elusive math. No idea what's the ratio, wasnt really able to make it out. Far as I can tell, bring Clawed Metamorphs if using 5 man min squad because that represents the largest power spike and least differential when losing models in overwatch. Will try to do something about this at some point.

Genestealers basically perform the same as Acolytes but are hardier against bolter fire. I have yet to do the point effectiveness per forced save per effective wound vs bolters (and unlikely to do it any time soon), but First Curse basically lets you rambo with the highest chances of success. As long as it isnt a Subteraenean Uprising squad of Acolytes, the FC is better and more likely to decimate squads it rolls across (having access to Stealth + Shrouded T1 puts them at 4+ save out in the open, which already makes them hardier than Acolytes in anything not a ruin. If you imagine the cost of that T1 tankability is worth the doubling of points, then yes Genestealers would be the absolute BEST generalist unit in the codex. With stealth, +1 T over acolytes and 5++, stealers are ironically often the tankiest unit in the codex. The increase in survivability does require a fair amount of getting shot to overcome the much greater damage potential of acolytes (point for point) against anything other than ignores cover, unless compared to acolytes outside of Sub Up on T1.

TLDR: Acolytes does most of the chores as suicide squads. Clawed Metamorphs OR huge Acolyte units (either or) are your heavy duty suicide squad. Whipped Metamorphs are if you dont want suicide units. Genestealers are the best overall-charge-into-anything unit, in particular the First Curse formation. Abberants are toss up in the air on how to use them. Clawed Metamorphs are your best AV13 and below answer. Acolytes with Saws are your best AV13 and above answer.

Also, 2 units of Neophytes with Seismic Cannon = Flyrant in damage on Marines *in cover I think* ~Half a wound below inside cover with just seismic, ~1 wound above accounting for the double-tap lasguns. This is similar for most targets, though it is quite a bit better against T6 3+, and AV 12+. It's marginally cheaper at 200 points vs 240 points, but much easier to kill.

Good enough a TLDR for you?

[kazetanade]

I... cant make heads or tails of the first table for some reason. Probably need sleep and a computer to see it properly.

One more thing I'd been considering to do once I could, is to work out effectiveness per point spent per effective wound against bog standard bolters. Dunno if that's something you'd want to do but that would just be for my future references for unit comparisons.

Also, Metamorphs whips taking into account surviving more units. Claws I deem beautiful suicide units. =p

[No One]

kazetanade said:

I... cant make heads or tails of the first table for some reason. Probably need sleep and a computer to see it properly.

Is this a 'displays horribly' or 'have no idea what any of the numbers mean' thing? Because the first I can't really do anything about...the second, well, sleep would probably help . Otherwise, it's basically the expected wounds by acolytes (2nd column), aberrants (3rd column) and metamorphs (4th column) on the charge, and against the Toughness/Save profiles in the leftmost column. (The 'dashes' in the right columns are just me being lazy and not doing them again, since those are the most tedious to do - usually nothing of significance if they were confusing you.)

One more thing I'd been considering to do once I could, is to work out effectiveness per point spent per effective wound against bog standard bolters. Dunno if that's something you'd want to do but that would just be for my future references for unit comparisons.

That's (basically) what the right most columns are meant to convey (since that sounds...too fiddly to do properly. Maybe...). They're all the same points (basically - acolytes are 2 pts more), and the number in the right column is the number of bolter hits that would be required to make X do more damage than Y, due to the decreased points per wound (or survivability per wound).

In essence, how much you can be shot before you'd have been better off taking one of the other choices.

Also, Metamorphs whips taking into account surviving more units. Claws I deem beautiful suicide units. =p

Too many variables I think - though I could sort of get an idea by comparing the casualties to S4, and just taking that as 'combat' rather than 'shooting'...but that'd be a separate column again. (Though yes, they're all pretty much suicide units - except possibly stealers, dependant on cover).

[mattblowers]

That first one is confusing. It's not really clear what you are trying to say.

[kazetanade]

So... The right columns represents how many more hits a Metamorph has to take than a Acolyte unit for the Acolyte unit to be more worth it?

Could you give a, more in-depth explanation of what that is supposed to be?

Edit: oh, it suddenly makes sense now. So basically after getting shot 6 times, 14 Acolytes unit will perform better than the 10 Metamorphs unit that is shot 6 times.

What's the conclusion to be drawn here then? I thought that means 8 acolytes > 4 hybrid, but on further thinking that's just common sense.

Maybe something like, doubling attacks is only marginally better than getting +2 S. So since we can get a much better return from the +2S and its a lot cheaper than doubling attacks, Metamorphs will consistently outperform MSU size Acolytes for performance vs Cost, so it makes sense to have larger Acolytes and smaller Clawed Metamorphs.

Performance of Acolytes vs invul saves surprised me. I guess the volume of wounds from Metamorphs more heavily lean towards forced saves, while Acolytes lean towards rends.

So target priority, metamorphs run at things with AV and invul - Acolytes run at things with bad invul and high T. Both pretty much destroy infantry.

[No One]

mattblowers said:

That first one is confusing. It's not really clear what you are trying to say.

Does it make sense ignoring the 2 columns on the right? (Essentially the expected number of wounds of each at the same points). If you're talking about conclusions...pretty much just posted the numbers at the moment, it was ~11:30 and I just wanted it done.

kazetanade said:

Edit: oh, it suddenly makes sense now. So basically after getting shot 6 times, 14 Acolytes unit will perform better than the 10 Metamorphs unit that is shot 6 times.

What's the conclusion to be drawn here then? I thought that means 8 acolytes > 4 hybrid, but on further thinking that's just common sense.

Essentially - but, it's shot 6 times, not 6 dead. So, more accurately, 10 acolytes>6 hybrids - but 11 acolytes<7 hybrids.

Not sure about your comment about min sizes - half the squad at which acolytes>hybrids. Which gives 5>3. In other words, 2 casualties from min would put acolytes higher.

Acolytes run at things with bad invul and high T.

Bad invul yes, but low T is preferable.

[Hive Bahamut]

Very cool. Nice generalist comparison for stuff we have all been curious about. Thanks

[kazetanade]

I'm pretty sure I knew what I was talking about last night - but upon waking up I have no idea anymore what it was. >_>

I think it might have to do with point cost vs effective size - ratio wise Acolytes work better at 1.5?-2.0 the size of a Claws unit, so its cheaper and more effective to run 5 man Claws unit than to double out Acolyte units for the same output (2 pts per model to match output instead of 8 pts per model).

That's probably just a ratio formulae thing to work off, because 5 man units are just fodder and not very useful in general.

[No One]

Fixed a couple of errors (mostly for metamorphs in the second table - don't think there was really anything too major) - that's what I get for being ambitious at 11 o'clock at night...Also I think both 'riptide' profiles were quite out for acolytes/metamorphs (not sure what I stuffed up there though), and a couple of other things. As such, numbers in the 2 right columns may or may not be correct. Not going to update unless people are actually interested.

kazetanade said:

I think it might have to do with point cost vs effective size - ratio wise Acolytes work better at 1.5?-2.0 the size of a Claws unit, so its cheaper and more effective to run 5 man Claws unit than to double out Acolyte units for the same output (2 pts per model to match output instead of 8 pts per model).

I think so? I mean, if you're basically comparing 'upgrading' a stock-standard metamorph unit to a clawed vs adding 'equivalent' (i.e. 1) acolytes, then yeah - the acolyte squad needs quite a few casualties (i.e. both harmless) before becoming the better choice, even against its preferred target (i.e. low T, good save).

If you're looking at equal points of acolytes and metamorphs - there's few cases where acolytes come out ahead by default. e.g. Terminators on the charge, a lot of targets with furious charge and/or might from beyond. But other than that - yeah, they only do more damage when they hit the ~1.5-2 times unit size (depending on target) due to casualties. So I think it more depends on whether you think you'll see those sorts of casualties as to which one is better. i.e. Sub uprising, usually metamorphs (due to primus/shrouded), while BC, acolytes are going to do better.

That's probably just a ratio formulae thing to work off, because 5 man units are just fodder and not very useful in general.

Sort of - clawed metamorphs are quite dangerous, even at just 5 man - very glass cannon though (and my numbers are reliant on a banner - though broodcycle buff/hatred would probably be ~equivalent). e.g. They'd take down a marine squad on the charge (provided they didn't lose any to overwatch...), or mulch a couple of bikers. Even knock a couple of wounds off a riptide (or almost kill a nid MC).

[nalathani]

I had made a google doc sheet to do something similar, which is here if anyone is interested:

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uB5H1PnXTD_xfRUXdUmQYUNyouVGVfHeqgJrwnzLTLY/edit?usp=sharing

I was curious if abberants were as bad as everyone made them out to be. Turns out, they are. Which kinda sucks since I would like to use them, but there's nothing clawed Metamorphs don't do better. On my sheet I assumed WS 4 on anything that wasn't a walker. It was 120 pts worth of models for each unit (The metamorphs are 121).

[mattblowers]

Oct 27, 2016 0:28:24 GMT No One said:

mattblowers said:

That first one is confusing. It's not really clear what you are trying to say.

Does it make sense ignoring the 2 columns on the right? (Essentially the expected number of wounds of each at the same points). If you're talking about conclusions...pretty much just posted the numbers at the moment, it was ~11:30 and I just wanted it done.

Taking out a few variables certainly helps clear it up a bit. I was just a bit confused where it was going. The glass cannon nature of the cult does make it more challenging: there's the whole "this is what the unit can do" vs. "this is what the unit can do with what will be left by the time they get to charge". I'm with Stalin on this, "quantity has a quality all of it's own". Other than the cult icon on metamorphs and acolytes, and some metamorph claw/whip upgrades, I'm all for more bodies over upgrades. The upgrades come in to play when you summon.

[No One]

nalathani said:

It was 120 pts worth of models for each unit (The metamorphs are 121).

Pretty sure metamorphs are max 10 - and they should have a banner (as should the acolytes), since that ups damage so much against WS 4. Even min squads, the banner increases hits more than an extra body (though it's not necessarily a good purchase on min squads, due to the fragility of the unit, and the difficulty of hiding a banner among 5 guys.)

mattblowers said:

Taking out a few variables certainly helps clear it up a bit. I was just a bit confused where it was going. The glass cannon nature of the cult does make it more challenging: there's the whole "this is what the unit can do" vs. "this is what the unit can do with what will be left by the time they get to charge".

Yeah, the idea behind the right two columns was to sort of investigate the 'glass cannon' nature of the different units (relative to each other), but...a touch too fiddly (and same-ey) to get all of the numbers, and apparently it just confused the issue. Trying to convey too much I think.

[mattblowers]

Oct 27, 2016 12:39:01 GMT nalathani said:

I was curious if abberants were as bad as everyone made them out to be. Turns out, they are. Which kinda sucks since I would like to use them, but there's nothing clawed Metamorphs don't do better.

I still don't agree. In most situations, yes, the clawed metamorphs are better. (For the record, I'm not taking any aberrants in my tournament list for this weekend.) But I argue that there still are situations where the aberrants can work. Their ability to get to T:10 is golden, though unreliable. Their biggest calling card is the T:4 with FNP (should be 4 FNP if you can keep the Iconward close). People poo-poo the ogryns/bulgryns from the IG codex and I have won many of my games with them as well. In that case they do things that nothing else from the IG codex can do so it's not a direct correlation. In ITC especially the aberrants are very useful. They reliably remove obsec drop pods and kill the MSU squads in them. They can hold objectives until the start of your next turn (the only way to score them in ITC), something that a small unit of acolytes will never manage. Just those 2 situations make them very useful in the ITC format. Over 1500 lists you can find room for them to fit rather easily. Under 1500 you will lose too much to make them worth it.

Here's a better analogy: aberrants are insurance. Insurance is a terrible idea on paper. Statistics will tell you that it makes no sense to ever buy insurance (and I don't on any products I buy). I buy insurance for big things in life that can ruin me financially (health care, auto insurance, home owners insurance, life insurance, and disability insurance). This insurance provides me the stability in my life to take risks in other areas to do the things that matter most to me. If I was broke enough to not have food on the table, obviously insurance would be the first thing to go, I'm not worried about future potential problems when eating today is a concern. Aberrants help in ITC where the most important thing I have to worry about is scoring. They provide me insurance that they can most likely do their job. This frees up my units of metamorphs and acolytes to do what they do best: (please do not swear) up my opponents plans.

In 40K finding ways of mitigating the randomness of dice rolls wins games. That's why FNP, Twin-linked, preferred enemy, master crafted, hatred, etc are so valuable. Aberrants will still work when you roll terribly, they are consistent. We've all had games where rending didn't matter a whit because you couldn't roll a 6 to save your life. Dice happens in 40K. Anything that makes you more reliable is at least worth a look. Game planning solely around "average dice" means you lose 50% of your games.

/ settles back and prepares to be flamed

[nalathani]

The goal with my own numbers was to do a simple, even comparison between the three units, and not give real world examples of how much damage they can do. You are correct in the Banner, you lose a model but gain more extra hits from the extra weapon skill. I didn't give it to them because Abberants don't have access to a banner. Which, of course, is one more strike against them.

[mattblowers]

Oct 27, 2016 13:12:22 GMT nalathani said:

The goal with my own numbers was to do a simple, even comparison between the three units, and not give real world examples of how much damage they can do. You are correct in the Banner, you lose a model but gain more extra hits from the extra weapon skill. I didn't give it to them because Abberants don't have access to a banner. Which, of course, is one more strike against them.

I could be wrong, but doesn't the Iconward banner count as both FNP and a cult Icon? I'm pretty sure I remember it doing so. Don't have the codex on me ATM.