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Post by ilnar on Jul 5, 2012 6:24:46 GMT
ilnar: Sure, if you're an idiot. It's pretty simple. Take the Prisoner's Dilemma, simplified for easy comprehension: We each have the choice of either giving each other $2 or taking $1 for ourselves. If we both give, then we both get $2. If we both take, then we both get $1. If one gives while the other takes, the taker gets $3 while the giver gets $0. You can try all the mind games you want, but the only rational move is to take. Similarly with high level Chess and Poker. The players aren't playing mind games, they're managing the odds in their favour during a game. Not that I necessarily agree with the idea of losing inches trying to do some funky wound allocation with Carnifex, but Prisoner's Dilemma doesn't rely apply here since it grossly over simplifies the number, and valuation, of the options available on any given person's turn, and assumes everyone is rational. If there's one thing human beings frequently aren't it's rational. If you're going to honestly tell me that every move every intelligent, knowledgeable opponent you've ever played has been 100% rational and based on a careful weighing of the probabilities, odds, and objective threat presented by your units then I have to question if you've ever played a game with people before. Sometimes people miss things. Sometimes they can get tunnel vision because of one specific threat to the point of ignoring everything else. Sure, it doesn't always happen, but it does sometimes. And I can guarantee that there are many chess and poker players who do try and get into their opponents heads. When you're playing a game, you're never playing against probabilities alone, you're also playing the person across the table. This.
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Post by coredump on Jul 5, 2012 6:27:56 GMT
Not quite. The way to do it is figure out the chance of *not* getting it, and then take the complement.
So first roll has a 5/6 chance of not getting it. Next roll is 4/5, then 3/4, then 2/3. Multiply the all together, and you get.... 33%. Hence the 66% chance of getting it.
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Post by nalathani on Jul 5, 2012 14:45:40 GMT
I'm personally going to experiment with a 2 or 3 carnifex brood over the next few games. I know others disagree, but I think the "wound allocation by closest model" approach will make those units very hard to wipe out. 3 Carnifexes with two primes on the sides will make it hard to get all of an opponents shooting on any particular model. If they shoot from the right side, they hit a prime. If they shoot from the backside/right they hit a carnifex, if they shoot from straight on, they hit a different carnifex, etc. And, because it's a huge single unit, something like Endurance or Catalyst will hit 3 monstrous creatures and two T5 independant characters with a single cast. With Regen to back them up...I dunno, maybe it won't work, but I want to try it.
Harpies are actually rather inexensive given what they can do now. With the exception of str 10 shots, you can keep them 24+ inches away from your enemy and hit them with barbed stranglers all day long, and if they decide to waste their lascannon/Krak missle shots on you, it'll be an inefficient use of resources since they'll hit on 6's. Once the majority of their firepower has been neutralized (Ymgarls tying up in assault, or your own firepower cutting down theirs) it can slam into CC or drop bombs on things. Again, I'd like to try it out.
I see our troops being mainly un-upgraded tarpits and scoring blobs. That's it. Our killing will be done by Ymgarls, Trygons, Tyrants, etc. Yes Horms can't get into assault, but 30 unupgraded Horms are only 180 points. Keep them running around so the small arms fire isn't trying to hit your harpy, or get a lucky wound or two on your fexstar.
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Post by atrocity on Jul 5, 2012 15:52:04 GMT
I really want to start using a harpy or two, being able to assault and halve initiative values is really nice, along with the whole thing about being a flyer
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Post by coredump on Jul 5, 2012 16:33:10 GMT
Nalathni: I have the same idea, but I am hoping one prime is enough to 'deflect' all of those shots. If you can keep the prime as the closest model, (not always easy with 18" range), then it can LOS those hits and deal them around the brood like cards.
Atrocity: I don't think the I thing really matters. How many units does this make a difference? If you are also assaulting with some HGaunts or warriors against MEq.... in the open....
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Post by nurglitch on Jul 5, 2012 16:33:49 GMT
vivi22:
The point of bringing up the Prisoner's Dilemma is to refute the notion that mind games have any place in Warhammer. Just as a computer can beat Chess Grand Masters, anyone can improve their game when they stop wasting their time with mind games and other wastes of time, and focus on the parameters of the game.
The Prisoner's Dilemma is a wonderful way of simplifying how paying attention to the parameters of a game takes out all the second-guessing, mind games, and second-guessing that naive players waste their time indulging in. Don't ask what your opponent will do, just consider what they can do as a best response to what you can do, and play accordingly.
Once you understand what your opponent can do, then it doesn't matter what they do, because Take the Prisoner's Dilemma. You know a rational opponent will always take. Suppose you face an irrational opponent who randomly gives and takes. Then you do as well as you would against a rational opponent when they get lucky and take, and you table them when they get unlucky and give.
Planning against a rational opponent is simply planning for a worst-case scenario, and encountering an irrational or simply stupid opponent merely means you have an advantage. They won't somehow deke you out by playing sub-optimally. There's no plan that's crazy enough to work, just a plan that surpasses the stupidity of its genesis.
Which brings us back to Monstrous Creatures. People think they are over-costed, and considered atomically they are. However, they were properly costed in conjunction with the rest of the Tyranid options (if not all possible combinations...), and so the question of whether one should take Monstrous Creatures is the same as ever: What is your strategy, are there any Monstrous Creature-shaped holes in it that need filling?
Well? Then break out the Norn Queens and fill that hole.
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Post by Davor on Jul 5, 2012 22:52:54 GMT
Is this legal? Didn't check rule book yet, but does the SL have to be with the Carnifex as a unit to do this? If so, then it's not possible since a SL CAN'T join anyone except TG. What rule and what is the page number it's on so I can read up on this. Sure its on Pg. 423. Invisability: Blessing that targets one friendly unit within 24". So take swarmloard. Roll 4 times on the Telepathy table. Hope you get Invisability. You have a 66% chance to get it. Not the greatest of odds. However it has two Warpcharge 2 powers. And SL the only guy in our army who can use them. Both are nasty. If you get mental fortitude dump it for the primaris power. Thank you very much once again my friend. Greatly appreciated.
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Post by Inquisitor Stingray on Jul 5, 2012 22:57:07 GMT
I remain undecided on Harpies. They will be subject to a lot of firepower and thusly will have to Dive/Jink in order to save their arses. However, this leaves them with Snapfire, which then denies them access to their primary weaponry - blast weapons. Is this really the case or did I miss something?
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Post by Davor on Jul 5, 2012 22:59:55 GMT
I am not sure about the Harpie. Do I buy a Trygon and Carnifex kit to make one, or buy 3 or 4 boxes of Gargoyles for the same price?
On one side, just making one mini, on the other side, that is 30 or 40 Gargoyles to be putting together and painting. On one hand you get 6 wounds, on the other hand you get 30-40 wounds with that many shots and attacks if not more.
I guess I will "counts as" a harpy for a game or two before I actually try and make one. Looking forward to read peoples reports on how it preformed for him or her.
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Post by kurbutti on Jul 5, 2012 23:12:56 GMT
You're correct.
Harpies will need some support, though. Enemy isn't likely to bother firing at them with high S low AP weapons since they tend to miss, unless it is a dedicated AA site of course. Consider supporting them with buffs like Endurance, in addition to their own regen. They could use some cover too, since that basically allows them to Jink without suffering penalty to shooting. Target saturation is kind of important too. As long as your opponents have more immediate threats than Harpies you should be pretty much safe. Their effective range basically lets them dictate their fights, and can cansistently outrange any threats. I see a lot of potential for them as anti-infantry MC's.
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Post by Inquisitor Stingray on Jul 6, 2012 0:04:25 GMT
You're correct. Harpies will need some support, though. Enemy isn't likely to bother firing at them with high S low AP weapons since they tend to miss, unless it is a dedicated AA site of course. Consider supporting them with buffs like Endurance, in addition to their own regen. They could use some cover too, since that basically allows them to Jink without suffering penalty to shooting. Target saturation is kind of important too. As long as your opponents have more immediate threats than Harpies you should be pretty much safe. Their effective range basically lets them dictate their fights, and can cansistently outrange any threats. I see a lot of potential for them as anti-infantry MC's. Thanks a lot. This makes sense. As for Davor's question, I second proxying the Harpy before investing in a conversion. I'd a bunch of Gargoyles over the Harpy, not because I think they are more viable (though you could agree that they indeed are), but because I have a feeling that we will see the release of an official Harpy model by the end of this year. I'd hate to see a molde that has been put so much time, money and effort into being made essentially useless, or at least less-optimal, because of an official release.
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Post by Space is pretty big on Jul 6, 2012 0:34:46 GMT
Yeah actually...
I mean I don't play many newbies anymore, but the first thing most of my local players do when they build a roster is crack out the calculators.
They'll play for funzy armies too, but you can't mess with their heads then either as for those games we're not worried enough about winning anymore.
When we play competitive though, it's about numbers. I don't know, we find it fun, but then again we find calculus fun so maybe we're just A-holes...
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Post by Davor on Jul 6, 2012 1:54:00 GMT
Thanks ISR. I didn't know, a Harpy model may or may not come out this year. Or maybe I just forgot about it with all the hoopla of 6th edition in the last 2 weeks.
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Post by angeleania on Jul 6, 2012 13:03:57 GMT
A couple of things:-
On the if both give, both take, the correct answer is that if both give, you gain nothing, as you give what you recive. If both take then you again get nothing as there is nothing in the pot to take. So its all about getting your opponant to give so you can take.
No mind games, Every comp i have been too, at all sorts of levals, look at the list and when they see 3 trygons, or 3 tervigons or a mix of 5-6 monsters, they ALL go Hmm how can i deal with all of that. Some show panic others show caution. But you have started them on the road to playing how u want.
How ever you can work out all the odds you want, every roll you make is just a 1 in six chance. Its that random.
Point to note, game yesterday i use my sons dice, i rolled off for the Broods powers, rolled a 6, then 6,6,6,6,4,6,4,4,6,6, then a 3 Same dice, i screamed foul on the dice so carried on and then never rolled a nother 6 for 20-30 rolls. So not the dice just it happens.
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Post by nurglitch on Jul 6, 2012 15:27:36 GMT
angeleania:
You misapprehend the source of the payoffs for the Prisoner's Dilemma. There's a central 'pot' from which the players can either give their opponent $2 or take $1. That's why the payoffs add up, rather than being zero-sum. I apologize for not making that clear.
It's not about getting your opponent to give so you can take, so much as showing that regardless of deals you make or psychological blather you might try to impose, the smart money is on taking regardless of what your opponent does.
Incidentally there's nothing particularly random about rolling 1D6. You know you're going to get a result from 1-6. Now, if you rolled the dice and it combusted, or returned a 7, then you might have something about randomness going on. The fact is that the results of dice follow a particular distribution, and that 'clumping' is just one aspect of that distribution. If you rolled enough, then you could expect a relatively even distribution of results, and the fact that the dice will never be rolled enough in any game of Warhammer 40,000 means that it'll appear as though you've randomly gotten good luck or bad luck when you uncounter a clump of similar results.
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