"biggest refresh and update to the Tyranid army ever"- doubt

[riverzora]

"This new edition also heralds the biggest refresh and update to the Tyranid army, ever!" X Doubt.
This incredibly bold claim was made on the Community website - but just how bold a claim is it? I went back and looked at previous range refreshes and looked at how many updated old models we got, how many new units we got, and what percentage of our existing models those updates represented and... well, the bar is high.

The update from 2nd Edition to 3rd Edition updated all but one of our kits (Genestealers) which was a whopping 10 units updated representing 90% of our existing range. It also added 4 new units which was an increase of over a third - our second largest increase by percentage yet.
The update from Rogue Trader to 2nd Edition added the most new units both by number and percentage... but that seems cheap to count as most armies were only truly fleshed out in 2nd Edition. But 5th and 7th edition added 6 new units each - which in 5th still represented an increase of over a third.

Third to Fourth edition - the edition where we really settled into the current aesthetic - comes second place in refreshments with 8 units refreshed representing over 50% of our army at the time.

So what's the bare minimum this edition could offer for Warhammer Community's claim not to be a porky-pie?
10 old kits updated (which would represent less than a third, but bear minimum I'll let them off with a raw numbers increase rather than policing proportion) and 6 new units (again, only a 20% increase or so - less than the average, but giving them the benefit of the doubt in raw numbers).

To be percentage wise our biggest update, it would have to be 31 old kits updated and 12 new units (not counting the 2nd edition update - then they'd need 60 new kits which is just silly.

So to sum up - are we going to get (at least) 10 updated units and 6 new units? Maaaaaybe. With Biovores, Pyrovores, Termagants, Rippers, Lictor, Deathleaper and the Carnifex revealed already (plus maybe hormagaunts) we're close, and with the feeder-beast, big floating brain and winged warrior (prime? shrike?) that's half way to the six minimum. So we might well get the raw numbers to classify as our biggest range refresh and update... But as a percentage of our existing range? I expect we won't be anywhere close.

[mattblowers]

This is a whole lot of analysis that gets the cart before the horse. You are assuming that you and GW mean the same thing when referring to the terms "refresh and update". I'm not sure you are. As it is a brand new edition then the rules will be a 100% refresh for 100% of the units meaning that you can't play the game without the new rules; the old rules simply won't work. I appreciate the effort you put into creating these tables and charts to prove GW is hyperbolizing; but I'm not really sure what meaningful point they convey.

[riverzora]

Mar 27, 2023 14:19:46 GMT mattblowers said:

This is a whole lot of analysis that gets the cart before the horse. You are assuming that you and GW mean the same thing when referring to the terms "refresh and update". I'm not sure you are. As it is a brand new edition then the rules will be a 100% refresh for 100% of the units meaning that you can't play the game without the new rules; the old rules simply won't work. I appreciate the effort you put into creating these tables and charts to prove GW is hyperbolizing; but I'm not really sure what meaningful point they convey.

I don't necessarily think they are hyperbolising - I think they could well meet the 10 old kits and 6 new kit standard.they're more than half way there based on the reveal video alone. I don't think they'll match it in percentage, but I also say to expect that seems silly.

Every edition we get new rules for every model so it would be hugely disingenuous to suggest updating rules counts as "the biggest refresh and update to the tyranid army ever". In that case every codex this edition will be that army's biggest refresh and update, even with NO new models. Also note they didn't make that claim of the space marines - they specified this was true of the nids Compare when they said the same thing about the Necrons and it WAS the biggest range refresh ever.

I'm super excited about our 10th edition refresh and I just hope GW put its money where its mouth is so i can put all of my money into its mouth

[hivefleetkerrigan]

Biggest could also be the total age of the kits being refreshed too.

Granted, I'm thinking this is marketing hyperbole. Well get a bunch of models, some refreshed and some new but "biggest refresh" will be debatable.

[riverzora]

Mar 27, 2023 14:40:22 GMT hivefleetkerrigan said:

Biggest could also be the total age of the kits being refreshed too.

Granted, I'm thinking this is marketing hyperbole. Well get a bunch of models, some refreshed and some new but "biggest refresh" will be debatable.

I included refreshed kits in the calculations. I reckon we might well get the raw numbers for it to be accurate!

[purestrain]

Biovore, hormagaunts, termagants, shrikes are just the ones that are being redone, there are still a few unknowns just in the video itself that could either be refreshed units already in plastic or brand new ones.

pretty sure its going to be accurate, but only time will tell.

[riverzora]

Mar 27, 2023 15:34:52 GMT purestrain said:

Biovore, hormagaunts, termagants, shrikes are just the ones that are being redone, there are still a few unknowns just in the video itself that could either be refreshed units already in plastic or brand new ones.

pretty sure its going to be accurate, but only time will tell.

Yeah I think it will be accurate in raw numbers.

Termagants, Rippers, Biovores, Carnifex/Screamer Killer and Lictors were all in the video and articles - that's five refreshed kits.

Hormagaunts were *probably* in the video (there's some debate) but even if they weren't there's no way the terms are getting an update and horms aren't. Pyrovores are basically guaranteed a double kit with biovores. Same with deathleaper for the lictor kit. That takes us up to eight refreshed kits. Only two more and it's the largest number of refreshed kits we've had. If we count shrikes and the potential for a winged prime - that's arguably two more depending on whether we count forgeworld/upgrade kits as old units or new ones.

Newbies we've already got those feeder beasts, the big brain bug and its bodyguards, and shrikes/winged prime if we don't count them as refreshers.

I genuinely think it will be our biggest release in terms of number of new kits.

[acehilator]

Refresh:
Termagants
Hormagaunts
Ripper Swarm
Biovore
Spore Mines
Lictor

New:
new Gaunt type
Screamer-Killer
Norn Emissary
Venom Crawler lookalike
Shrike Prime

TBD:
Pyrovore
Deathleaper
Shrikes
Mucolid Spore

So it's six refreshed plus five new minimum. Everything in the TBD category is a reasonable assumption, which brings us to eleven refreshed plus five new. And then it's almost sure we get new Genestealers. The open question is if the Screamer-Killer is standalone, or part of a refreshed Carnifex kit. So the potential maximum for now is 13 + 5.

[mattblowers]

Mar 27, 2023 14:36:20 GMT riverzora said:

Every edition we get new rules for every model so it would be hugely disingenuous to suggest updating rules counts as "the biggest refresh and update to the tyranid army ever".

Hope springs eternal.

I'm super excited about our 10th edition refresh and I just hope GW put its money where its mouth is so i can put all of my money into its mouth

That's funny right there.

So if they come out with a new biovore/pyrovore kit, is that two refreshes or just one? Since most kits are dual kits, do you count both? Did Cadian weapon/shoulderpad sprew equal a refresh? Or only if the whole kit is new? How about base sizes? Does a base size increase = a refresh? Maybe it's just the biggest because will be in the edition box set so every model will be a new sprew. Don't get too excited though, starter editions typically are awesome to look at but quickly get pantsed in front of the class after a few codexes release.

[mattblowers]

Mar 27, 2023 15:47:03 GMT riverzora said:

I genuinely think it will be our biggest release in terms of number of new kits.

It's gonna be hard to outdo the new kits we got a few years back. It had the tycyte/sporocyst, mucolids, shrike/harpy, haruspex/exocrine, broodlord, and toxicrene/maleceptor. It was 'nidvana. The hiveguard/tyrantguard also came although that might have been a bit later. Warriors got a "refresh" somewhere along the line, but the model isn't that much different other than appropriately sized weapon options. Most of the new models were not good in game, but on the shelf they were tops.

[Snaekhar Venomblood]

I certainly hope that the Screamer-Killer teased in the trailer is going to be a new kit in itself, rather than a replacement for the solid Carnifex kit. It would be awful if GW moved the whole Carnifex concept back to more closely following the weird 2nd Edition model when the 4th Edition Carnifex still stands the test of time.

mattblowers the Hive Guard/Tyrant Guard were released alongside the Hive Crone/Harpy, updated Warrior and Haruspex/Exocrine kits, all of which were released during 6th Edition in January 2014. Barely a year or so later, we then got the Tyrannocyte/Sporocyst, Broodlord, plastic Zoanthrope/Venomthrope and Toxicrene/Maleceptor kits during 7th Edition (though the dates on some of the sprues for the latter reveal those models were designed back in 2013, so it makes me wonder if they were originally planned to be released in 6th as well, but something caused them to be delayed?).

acehilator I doubt that Mucolid Spores will get a refresh given they are already plastic (and come free in the Tyrannocyte/Sporocyst kit I believe), but maybe they'll get a plastic kit of their own to make it easier for players to build up a cluster.

Otherwise, it looks like we're in for a good few new kits, and a bigger release than we got in either 6th or 7th, or even 5th, though I doubt it will be as much of a refresh as in 3rd or 4th because a lot of existing Tyranid kits are fine, it'll be mainly refreshing the old Gaunt kits, plastifying the last few remaining Finecast models like the 'vores and Lictors and introducing a good few new units.

[acehilator]

Snaekhar Venomblood I also think a new Mucolid would be kind of weird, but a second, larger Spore Mine was part of Valrak's leak, which turned out to be 100% otherwise, so I'll file Mucolids under TBD for now. Strictly speaking new Hormagaunts would be TBD too, but there is just no real way they don't refresh those if they do new Termagants. I guess they will come a bit later, this release will take a few months anyway.

[zxcsonic]

I almost wonder if they are going to do a Hormagaunt/Termagant mixed kit. If you look at the bug right at 3:09 (https://youtu.be/X98ImCbhjnI?t=189) that looks like a Hormagaunt, but with the new ridges of the Termagant.

[acehilator]

Mar 27, 2023 19:26:15 GMT zxcsonic said:

I almost wonder if they are going to do a Hormagaunt/Termagant mixed kit. If you look at the bug right at 3:09 (https://youtu.be/X98ImCbhjnI?t=189) that looks like a Hormagaunt, but with the new ridges of the Termagant.

Interestingly, all the melee gribblies are the new guys.

The only time we see a regular Hormagaunt is right at the beginning, when the Marine kills one on the ground. Everything else is the new guys.

[jesses]

riverzora

I can't speak for every edition, but none of the range refreshes in editions I've been playing for have been at the same time. It's usually done in waves. Like by the time I picked up Nids in early 5th the Tyrgon/Mawloc, Pyrovore, and Venomthrope kits were already out, but the HT was still metal. Then we got the current TripleTyrant kit and the Tervigon/Tyrannofex later. 6th was the same deal, we got Harpy/Hive Crone and Exocrine/Haruspex, and then the Toxcicrene/Maleceptor, Sporocyst/Tyrannocyte/Mucolid, and Venom/Zoan kits as part of Shield of Baal in 7th (which I'm counting as a wave following up the 6th ed initial wave because we never received a 7th ed Codex).

Were those earlier editions all dropped at once, or did they come in waves? My bet is on they came in waves. I doubt we've ever had more than 6ish kits dropped at a single time.