why AM Mortars

[mattblowers]

Oct 2, 2017 17:59:50 GMT dangsc said:

Currently a Basilisk will do 2W/turn average to T7/3+, a Manticore does 3W. (that's the index rules with no buffs)

You certainly can't mean that when they do D3 damage per wound roll? Do you mean 2/3 successful to wound rolls? The rumored -3 AP will make a big difference as well.

[acehilator]

AP -3 on Basilisks is not a rumor anymore, reviews/previews of the AM codex have been out for a few days.

[No One]

mattblowers said:

You certainly can't mean that when they do D3 damage per wound roll? Do you mean 2/3 successful to wound rolls?

...He can? That's their average output with D3 dam.

Manticores: 7 shots (3.5 per D6). Half hit, 2/3 wound, 2/3 failed save, 2 dam average.
7/2x2/3x2/3x2=3.11

Basilisk: 2d6 drop lowest is ~4.47 I think? Half hit, 2/3 wound, 2/3 failed save, 2 dam average.
4.47/2x2/3x2/3x2=2

[dangsc]

mattblowers exactly this:

Oct 3, 2017 0:19:42 GMT No One said:

mattblowers said:

You certainly can't mean that when they do D3 damage per wound roll? Do you mean 2/3 successful to wound rolls?

...He can? That's their average output with D3 dam.

Manticores: 7 shots (3.5 per D6). Half hit, 2/3 wound, 2/3 failed save, 2 dam average.
7/2x2/3x2/3x2=3.11

Basilisk: 2d6 drop lowest is ~4.47 I think? Half hit, 2/3 wound, 2/3 failed save, 2 dam average.
4.47/2x2/3x2/3x2=2

[mattblowers]

Oct 3, 2017 5:51:34 GMT dangsc said:

mattblowers exactly this:

Oct 3, 2017 0:19:42 GMT No One said:

...He can? That's their average output with D3 dam.

Manticores: 7 shots (3.5 per D6). Half hit, 2/3 wound, 2/3 failed save, 2 dam average.
7/2x2/3x2/3x2=3.11

Basilisk: 2d6 drop lowest is ~4.47 I think? Half hit, 2/3 wound, 2/3 failed save, 2 dam average.
4.47/2x2/3x2/3x2=2

That's why I play them as Catachan with Harker and save my reroll for the number of shots dice. My gameplay experience far outpaces flat mathhammer on this one. With the new catachan rules it gets even better.

[No One]

mattblowers said:

That's why I play them as Catachan with Harker and save my reroll for the number of shots dice. My gameplay experience far outpaces flat mathhammer on this one. With the new catachan rules it gets even better.

...What? A: Manticores get more out of reroll shots (basilisk's drop lowest means you're unlikely to get 2 bad rolls, hence you're getting less out of a reroll shots than manticores, who have more dice to roll a '1', which is your best reroll).
B: Why the mention of Harker and saving the reroll for shots dice? Harker effects them both equally (actually, manticore more: an extra 1/12 of 3 is greater than an extra 1/12 of 2).

Also, not really sure what you're getting at with your post...(please tell me it's not just a 'mathhamer can't make up for game experience' post implying it's useless...)
Like, the post was about how basilisks are statistically better than manticores - their average output per turn is non-marginally greater. 'Gameplay experience' is, if anything, likely to favour the manticores (over the turns they fire), since the only 'non-quantifiable' difference between them is effectively pointless unless playing apox (120" vs 240" so matters ). Thus, yes, you can mathhammer your expected outcome over the 4 turns vs 6 turns, and start to draw conclusions.

[mattblowers]

Oct 3, 2017 11:34:48 GMT No One said:

mattblowers said:

That's why I play them as Catachan with Harker and save my reroll for the number of shots dice. My gameplay experience far outpaces flat mathhammer on this one. With the new catachan rules it gets even better.

...What? A: Manticores get more out of reroll shots (basilisk's drop lowest means you're unlikely to get 2 bad rolls, hence you're getting less out of a reroll shots than manticores, who have more dice to roll a '1', which is your best reroll).
B: Why the mention of Harker and saving the reroll for shots dice? Harker effects them both equally (actually, manticore more: an extra 1/12 of 3 is greater than an extra 1/12 of 2).

Also, not really sure what you're getting at with your post...(please tell me it's not just a 'mathhamer can't make up for game experience' post implying it's useless...)
Like, the post was about how basilisks are statistically better than manticores - their average output per turn is non-marginally greater. 'Gameplay experience' is, if anything, likely to favour the manticores (over the turns they fire), since the only 'non-quantifiable' difference between them is effectively pointless unless playing apox (120" vs 240" so matters ). Thus, yes, you can mathhammer your expected outcome over the 4 turns vs 6 turns, and start to draw conclusions.

I have no idea what you are going on about. My post was that I find that I get far MORE than 2-3 wounds through with both the manticore and the basilisk with the index. I added the bit about Harker to make sure we were discussing the same thing and that he knew I use the reroll in the shooting phase to always increase the number of shots. Catachans make this combo even more potent in the codex. So yes, taking into account Harkers re-rolling 1s and using CP to get more shots completely changes the math.

What mathhammer doesn't take into account is that in my games playing the list I never really had people focus on the units, no matter what they were. They almost always survived the game (purestrains in your grill tend to distract your opponent) which makes the basilisk considerably more valuable than it was. The manticore is great, I love them. The basilisk has a place too (especially now that it's AP-3) and can even be better in some situations. If your points get tight I'd never bat an eye over dropping a manticore to take a basilisk. If you want to discount actual game play mechanics that change the math, feel free. I don't play games in a vacuum.

[No One]

mattblowers said:

I have no idea what you are going on about. My post was that I find that I get far MORE than 2-3 wounds through with both the manticore and the basilisk with the index. I added the bit about Harker to make sure we were discussing the same thing and that he knew I use the reroll in the shooting phase to always increase the number of shots. Catachans make this combo even more potent in the codex. So yes, taking into account Harkers re-rolling 1s and using CP to get more shots completely changes the math.

...The point was a proportional comparison between basilisks and manticores. Increasing the output of both doesn't suddenly make one better than the other. So yes, some will have a greater absolute output (though aside, it's not much greater. Harker doesn't make too much difference, a whopping 0.5 extra wounds for manticore, 0.3 for basilisk - he's just super cheap and adds up. While CP will affect one shot - can't be stuffed doing that, but again, it's not going to bump up the average too much).

And if you're saying that you're getting more than 2-3 wounds through...I'd guess confirmation bias, because that's about what you'd be getting on average. I know playing against them, I'd call that right for my experience - rarely nice and neat around there, but whiffs and not average out.

If you want to discount actual game play mechanics that change the math, feel free.

*Headdesk* I always endeavour to not do that. In most posts pertaining to mathhamer, I will note where the game play gives an advantage or disadvantage separate to the mathhammer. And, as far as I'm concerned, damage early>damage later, even if you survive to do more - this may not be to allow your tanks to survive, but your stealers, or whatever. (And if you don't have a 100% win rate, something's dying. Could it have not died if you'd killed things a bit earlier, and then snowballed through their army?) And, for what I was responding to, the gameplay elements you note don't change anything about a comparative summary (and are, you know, totally mathhammer-able. I just can't be stuffed with the CP, because stuff D6s).
*Shrug*

I don't play games in a vacuum.

I'm glad, because that would kill you /s.

[kazetanade]

I think the case is that the D6 reroll actually substantively increases number of shots, so you're getting between 4-5 inn the basilisk and around 7+ on the manticore. That might change numbers and tick up by another 2-3W per artillery piece to something like 4-6W total?
and you like have 3 or 6 of them. I know i intend to play around 6 of them if i can help it. Harker around of course.

At this point I'm not even sure why play Purestrains. I could just field Leman Russes who are what the T-Fex wishes it could be, never risk failing the charge and tanking lascannons like bosses for artillery. Play Magii or even just that Crusaders + 8 Primaris in a Valk, be annoying, have LRs on the ground to be a presence, and all the while artillery just shelling non-stop. Its a netlisters dream, almost fully automatic army that has little downsides. I dont even need to move, so that's even 1 phase crossed off the list. Taking purestrains is like handicapping yourself for the enemy.

If FW is allowed, gotta find a way to squeeze in a few Avengers into an Elysian regiment taking Tallarn doctrines, and just pop up next to them and destroy their artillery or big monster without aaaaaaany chance of retaliation. Its really nonsense.